stackyFACTSA thousand peer-reviewed papers mean absolutely nothing if your neighbor has a crazy story about his cousin. The base rate fallacy happens when people ignore massive statistical probabilities in favor of one highly specific, gripping narrative. We are utterly incapable of respecting math when a juicy rumor is available.
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The law of small numbers exposes our absolute inability to grasp sample sizes. If a startup surveys literally four random people on the street and three like…
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Benford's law dictates a wildly uneven universe. In any totally natural list of numbers—from tax returns to river lengths—the number one effortlessly…
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The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is the ultimate tool for fake experts. By firing a bunch of random shots into a barn wall and then meticulously painting a…
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The birthday paradox destroys our intuitive grasp of odds. Plop just twenty-three entirely random individuals into a crowded room, and there is miraculously a…
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The prosecutor's fallacy is a catastrophic statistical inversion. The processor falsely assumes that the probability of the evidence given innocence is…
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The dreaded IQ test was not designed to measure pure, unalterable human genius. It was originally created solely to figure out which French kindergartners…
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