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Predicting future choices breaks rational decision models

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Newcomb's Paradox ruins expected utility theory. A super-intelligent predictor offers you two boxes: one holds a thousand dollars, the other holds a million or nothing. If the predictor foresaw you taking both, it left the million box empty. If it foresaw you taking only one, it filled it. Pure logic violently splits: do you statistically trust the predictor, or take the guaranteed cash?

Predicting future choices breaks rational decision models
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